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La Niña, less likely to
hit RP –PAGASA
The Philippines will likely experience a “gradual transition” to normal
climate condition starting April and May after the current El Niño
episode tapers off steadily until end of the year. The said phenomenon
reached its peak last month. “This has a 50% probability of occurrence
but significant enough than the two other scenarios anticipated by international
climate experts during a meeting last Feb. 9-10 in Singapore,” disclosed
Director Leoncio Amadore of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration.
The PAGASA is the weather arm of the Department of Science and Technology
(DOST). “The ASEAN meteorological experts in consultation with their counterparts
from the World Meteorological Organization, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology,
and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agreed that
the more realistic scenarios for next seasons starting 1998 are back-to-normal
climate.” Amadore said. He also added that though the “occurrence of La
Niña cannot totally be discounted. The more likely scenario is a
moderate return to neutral conditions,” as abnormally higher temperatures
over tropical central and eastern Pacific ocean normalizes.
This fresh development is expected to squelch public alarm over reports
of an impending and potentially disastrous La Niña, a climate phenomenon
opposite to El Niño and associated with excessive rainfall and devastating
floods. La Niña, also called El Viejo or matured El Niño
ushers higher occurrence of cloudiness and rains over the warm waters off
the Western Pacific including the Philippines. “Normally, the peak of the
southwest monsoon or typhoon and rainy season comes during the months of
July, August, and September. But this should not be confused with a La
Niña episode.” Amadore said. Amadore assured that PAGASA will sustain
its climate monitoring work sourcing data from a network of meteorological
agencies worldwide to keep the public informed of the latest weather developments
affecting the country. He also expressed support for “preparedness or contingency
plans being put in place by other government agencies which will become
handy in case of typhoons and floods” especially in traditionally vulnerable
agriculture-producing regions and flood-prone provinces.(Rodel G.
Offemaria)
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Headline News
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VOLUME XVII NO. 13